Predicting match outcomes in association football using team ratings and player ratings

The main goal of this article is to compare the performance of team ratings and individual player ratings when trying to forecast match outcomes in association football. The well-known Elo rating system is used to calculate team ratings, whereas a variant of plus-minus ratings is used to rate individual players. For prediction purposes, two covariates are introduced. The first represents the pre-match difference in Elo ratings of the two teams competing, while the second is the average difference in individual ratings for the players in the starting line-ups of the two teams. Two different statistical models are used to generate forecasts. The first type is an ordered logit regression (OLR) model that directly outputs probabilities for each of the three possible match outcomes, namely home win, draw and away win. The second type is based on competing risk modelling and involves the estimation of scoring rates for the two competing teams. These scoring rates are used to derive match outcome probabilities using discrete event simulation. Both types of models can be used to generate pre-game forecasts, whereas the competing risk models can also be used for in-game predictions. Computational experiments indicate that there is no statistical difference in the prediction quality for pre-game forecasts between the OLR models and the competing risk models. It is also found that team ratings and player ratings perform about equally well when predicting match outcomes. However, forecasts made when using both team ratings and player ratings as covariates are significantly better than those based on only one of the ratings. Keywords: Elo rating, competing risk, ordered logit regression, plus-minus rating, survival analysis.acceptedVersio

The stochastic vehicle routing problem : a literature review, part I : models

Building on the work of Gendreau et al. (Eur J Oper Res 88(1):3–12; 1996), we review the past 20 years of scientific literature on stochastic vehicle routing problems. The numerous variants of the problem that have been studied in the literature are described and categorized. Keywords: vehicle routing (VRP), stochastic programming, SVRPpublishedVersio

The stochastic vehicle routing problem : a literature review, part II : solution methods

Building on the work of Gendreau et al. (Oper Res 44(3):469–477, 1996), and complementing the first part of this survey, we review the solution methods used for the past 20 years in the scientific literature on stochastic vehicle routing problems (SVRP). We describe the methods and indicate how they are used when dealing with stochastic vehicle routing problems. Keywords: vehicle routing (VRP), stochastic programmingm, SVRPpublishedVersio

Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football

Sports betting markets are becoming increasingly competitive. These markets are of interest when testing new ideas for quantitative prediction models. This paper examines the value of assigning ratings to teams based on their past performance in order to predict match results in association football. The ELO rating system is used to derive covariates that are then used in ordered logit regression models. In order to make informed statements about the relative merit of the ELO-based predictions compared to those from a set of six benchmark prediction methods, both economic and statistical measures are used. The results of large-scale computational experiments are presented.Sports forecasting Loss function Evaluating forecasts Rating Ordered logit

Anvendt informatikk : eNytt, Desember 2004

Innholdet i dette notatet består av fire utvalgte studentprosjekter ved institutt for informatikk i studieåret 2004. Det er lærerne på de enkelte kurs som har stått for utvelgelsen. De utvalgte arbeidene har ikke vært rettet eller modifisert av redaksjonen og dermed er innholdet presentert i original form slik de ble levert av studentene

Anvendt informatikk : eNytt, Juni 2007

Opptrykk av studentarbeider i informatikk ved Høgskolen i Molde, Avdeling for økonomi, informatikk og samfunnsfag.Denne utgaven av Anvendt informatikk - eNytt inneholder fire utvalgte prosjekter ved avdeling for økonomi, informatikk og samfunnsfag i vårsemesteret 2007. Rapportene som er presentert kan være noe forkortet i forhold til originalarbeidene, men de er ellers ikke redigert eller modifisert av redaksjonen eller andre

Anvendt informatikk : eNytt, Desember 2008

Opptrykk av studentarbeider i informatikk ved Høgskolen i Molde, Avdeling for økonomi, informatikk og samfunnsfag.Denne utgaven av Anvendt informatikk - eNytt inneholder fire utvalgte prosjekter ved avdeling for økonomi, informatikk og samfunnsfag i høstsemesteret 2008. Rapportene som er presentert kan være noe forkortet i forhold til originalarbeidene, men de er ellers ikke redigert eller modifisert av redaksjonen eller andre